They said the Phillies’ window was closing. They said the bullpen was a liability. But here we are: Game 1 of the NLDS, and Philly might just hold the sharpest edges in this matchup. Let’s dive into how the lineup is humming at the right time — and whether the relief corps can stave off the Dodgers’ power arms.
Lineup in overdrive
If there’s a silver lining to losing Zack Wheeler, it’s that the Phillies’ offense has refused to wilt. Trea Turner — finally healthy again — logged consistent at-bats late in the season and should act as a catalyst atop the order. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm have shouldered much of the load this year, combining power with run-creation. The Phils rank among the league’s top run-producing units.
In their recent Havana rematch with Los Angeles, Schwarber and company got to Ohtani — even in his five-hitless innings — and the bullpen cracked. That suggests matchups aren’t all tilted in favor of the Dodgers’ starters. Philly’s hitters have shown patience and power, and in October, that confidence matters.
But can they keep it up? Facing Shohei Ohtani in Game 1 is no joke — he’s entering with form and a knack for carrying two ways. The Phillies will need early runs, smart at-bats, and a willingness to attack him rather than fall into passive counts.
Bullpen edges (if they hold)
Here’s where the “ifs” come in. Philly’s bullpen hasn’t always been a strength — in 2025 it’s hovered in the bottom half of the league by ERA metrics. But the narrative has shifted: Jhoan Duran has settled into closer duties and inherits a more defined role. Matt Strahm remains a trusted bridge, and the mix of Orion Kerkering, David Robertson, and Tanner Banks gives depth.
The bullpen strategy is likely to be aggressive but measured: get 3–6 outs from Duran, lean on Strahm/Robertson for high leverage, and allow the matchups to dictate usage. Taijuan Walker, converted out of the rotation midseason, provides an extra arm that could be pivotal in the middle frames.
Compare that to Los Angeles: the Dodgers’ bullpen has been a glaring weakness, especially in late-season stress tests. Their relief corps carries a 4.30 ERA — 20th in MLB. In blowups vs. Philly, that weakness was exposed again — notably when they coughed leads off in short relief stints. If Philly can force L.A.’s bullpen into longer innings, they’ve got the juice to exploit mismatches.
The balancing act & key to Game 1
- Early strike approach: The Phillies can’t wait to chase. Early traffic against Ohtani (or whoever follows) will be critical.
- Bullpen survival: If the starters don’t go deep, Philly’s bullpen must be sharp; one meltdown and the edge washes away.
- Matchup flexibility: Getting favorable platoon tilts — lefties to neutralize right-handed arms, late-inning matchup stacking — will amplify Philly’s edges.
If everything clicks — a dynamite first 3–4 innings, a controlled bridge through 6–7, and Duran closing — the Phillies might force the Dodgers to bleed in unfamiliar ways. But here’s the rub: if the bats go cold or a reliever slips, the margin tightens fast.
Prediction lean: Phillies 5, Dodgers 3 — if Philly plays sharp and keeps the confidence rolling.